Suppose a retailer rolls out a new inventory management system across 200 stores. Six months later, stockouts are down 15%. The VP of operations is thrilled. But should she be?
Maybe those stores were already trending downward in stockouts. Maybe the economy shifted. Maybe a competitor exited the market, changing demand patterns entirely. The 15% figure is real, but what it means is not at all obvious. To say the new system caused the improvement, you need something more than a before-and-after comparison. You need causal thinking.
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